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Why the NHL Shootout Needs to Go

The NHL shootout was introduced following the 2004 lockout. After losing the entire season, the NHL wanted to make its game more exciting to bring its fans back.

The main changes included eliminating the 2-line pass, adding a trapezoid to limit goalies’ ability to play the puck, establishing the Winter Classic outdoor game…and the shootout.

The removal of the 2-line pass and the addition of the trapezoid were implemented to speed up the game, while the Winter Classic brought a large public display of the game through its outdoor roots.

The shootout was added to prevent the game from ending in a tie, a concept that was vastly popular and very exciting to watch. The fans in most stadiums still stand up through the entire shootout.

But to the hardcore fans, the shootout needs to go. It is not because it's not exciting, it's not because it's not fun, and it certainly isn't that we want ties. It is simply not part of the game and still has become so pertinent to the standings year in and year out.

Unbalanced competition

Ice hockey is the ultimate team sport; a shootout is simply 3 rounds of one-on-one that is meant to determine what 65 minutes could not.

There is a reason why shootouts are not used in playoff games: it is because you do not get a true winner. The game is for the team to decide the outcome, not any single player, who has a fancy move up his sleeve.

Every year certain teams are great on the shootouts while others are terrible. Since 2004, the New Jersey Devils have won a league-high 54 shootouts (64 percent of their shootouts) while the Flyers have won a league-low 23 (35 percent). This means that the Devils average 4.4 points more than the Flyers every single season due to shootouts alone.

By that measure, Philadelphia must win 3 regulation games more than New Jersey each season to outrank them in the standings.

The shootout issue is very important moving forward, especially in this shortened season, where every point means even more. A perfect example: the Flyers' Feb. 7 shootout loss to the Florida Panthers, a game in which they had in control and then lost the lead. Philadelphia then dominated overtime, yet lost in the shootout, ceding a valuable point to a conference foe they may be battling come playoff time. Florida’s shooters simply had better moves than the Flyers so they were rewarded the last point, despite the fact that they were outplayed in the team aspect of the game.

Every year shootouts heavily affect the standings. And as a shootout win earns a team the exact same amount of points as a win in regulation, this unfairly weighs the balance of the competition.

By the Numbers

Here are some examples of the impact the shootout has had on the playoff position of teams just in the Eastern Conference.

2005-06
The Devils ended the season tied for the division lead with the Flyers and 1 point ahead of the Rangers. The Devils won the tiebreaker over the Flyers because they had more wins—5 more shootout wins than Flyers and 2 more shootout wins than the Rangers.

That same season, the Toronto Maple Leafs missed the playoffs by just 2 points; they had lost 7 shootouts.

2006-07
The bubble teams (teams fighting for the final playoff spot) were the Tampa Bay Lightning, NY Islanders, and Toronto Maple Leafs, all fighting for the final 2 spots. The Lightning had 10 shootout wins, the Islanders had 8 shootout wins, and the Leafs had 4.

Which teams do you think made the playoffs? That’s right: Tampa Bay and New York.

2007-08
Boston beat Carolina for the 8th spot in the East by 2 points. The Bruins won 4 more shootouts than the Hurricanes.

2008-09
Three bubble teams for 2 spots: the NY Rangers, who won 10 shootouts, the Montreal Canadiens, who won 7 shootouts, and the Florida Panthers, who won 3 shootouts (and lost 8 shootouts).

Florida missed the playoffs, ending up just 2 points behind the 7th-place Rangers and losing a tie-breaker to the 8th-place Canadiens. 

2009-10
The entire season was put on the line in a shootout in the final game of the year for the Flyers and the Rangers, who were tied in the standings. The winner would make the playoffs, while the loser would go home. The Flyers won the shootout, made the playoffs, and ultimately went on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

2010-11
The Rangers clinched the 8th seed over the Hurricanes by 2 points. New York won 9 games in the shootout; Carolina only won 5.

2011-12
The Buffalo Sabres ended the season in 9th place, missing the playoffs by 3 points. They lost 7 shootouts that season.

Winning shootouts doesn't always lead to success, however.

2005-06
The NY Islanders had 9 shootout wins (tied for most in East) and finished 12th.

2006-07
Boston won 9 shootouts and finished in 13th place.

2007-08
The Atlanta Thrashers finished with the most shootout wins in the East (9), yet finished 14th in the Conference.

The Edmonton Oilers won an all-time NHL-high 15 shootouts, yet still missed the playoffs. (In the 7-year existence of the shootout, Edmonton has won the 5th-most in league history, yet has only made the playoffs once.)

2008-09
The Colorado Avalanche won a Western-Conference-high 9 shootouts and still finished dead last.

2011-12
The Minnesota Wild won a Conference-best 11 shootouts, yet finished 12th.

Skilled players, skills competition

If one team has better shooters, it literally could be the worst team in the league but can still have the upper hand with just 2 better players than its opponent.

Since the shootout’s inception in 2004, the New Jersey Devils’ 3 leading scorers prior to this season were Zach Parise, Ilya Kovalchuk and Patrick Elias, who have combined for 71 career shootout goals. By comparison, the entire Flyers roster has only combined for 61 goals from 16 different players.
 
Also, it helps to have arguably the best goaltender in hockey, Martin Brodeur, in your corner. Brodeur has won 42 of the Devils’ 54 shootout victories, while the Flyers have used 8 different goalies to win 23 shootouts.

The winningest goaltenders in shootout history are all superstars. Six of the top 7 goalies who have 30 wins or more in the shootout are not only all-star goalies but Olympic selections as well: Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist, Marc Andre Fleury, Ryan Miller, Tim Thomas and Roberto Luongo.  

The point here is that if you have more skilled breakaway players/goaltender then you will gain more points from the shootout throughout the season, despite how good the rest of your team is.

13 percent of all games

For something that weighs so heavily in making the playoffs, shootouts are too prevalent: 13.2% of all games per season (162.7 games a year) go to a shootout, which means 486 points come from shootout games alone. That is way too many.

So let's get to the main point. Nobody wants to see a tie (see: NFL); however, the shootout needs be harder to get to, or be worth less in the standings. It was a novelty at first, but now it’s happening much too often.

Teams that know they have more success on the shootout often play defensively during the overtime just to force a shootout. Roughly 22% of games require overtime, which means only 9% actually end during the 5-minute extra session.

3 ways to fix it

1.   A longer 4-on-4 overtime before the shootout. Playing 10 minutes instead of 5 should lead to more chances and hopefully more (game-deciding) goals.

2.   Make regulation and overtime wins worth 3 points, shootout wins worth 2, and overtime/shootout losses worth 1 point. This would give teams more incentive to win during the game instead of waiting for the shootout.

3.   My favorite—and the most radical suggestion—was made by Detroit GM Ken Holland: play a normal 4-on-4 for 5 minutes, then a 3-on-3 for another 5-minute session. Then if the game still isn't over, go to a shootout. Playing 3 on 3 would be wide-open hockey, and the fans would absolutely love it.

Think about all the odd-man rush possibilities: breakaways, 2-on-1’s, 2-on-0’s, and 3-on-1’s. It would be great for the fans and it's still part of the game. Shootouts would still be used but much less often.

All three of these options would decrease the number of shootouts per year (13.2%) by either making them harder to get to or less important. Either way, that is forward progress toward the way the game should be played.

Tom B.

6:33 am on Thursday, March 21, 2013

…or just go back to ending in ties. Is that so horrible?

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Bob

12:30 pm on Friday, March 29, 2013

No, it's not. I never understood why ties were considered bad. The overtime period is fine, especially 4 on 4, but if the game is still tied at the end of OT let it stand.

Paul

12:34 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

(Expanding the point about team efforts) Shootouts also leave out an important part of the game: The defense (Defence for you Canucks out there). Maybe assign a defenseman on the shootout? Seriously though, the shootout was a good idea that did not translate well on the ice; Do away with it. I'm with Tom B., back to ties and one point to each team.

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Matt Skoufalos

12:58 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Great work on this, Josh. I hadn't had it seen spelled out so clearly why the Flyers have struggled so much with this, but there it is. No other major American sporting league ends its games with a skills contest (let's leave penalty strokes in soccer out of it for the time being, because that's another frustration, but one that is sort of managed by the size of the field and the length of games).

Ending in a tie is perfectly fine by me, but I understand wanting to create the incentive for a team to earn additional points. Those three-point games that that shootout creates are deadly as the playoff race narrows, and even moreso when they have a two- (or four-) point divisional swing among rivals.

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Joe

3:00 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Which begs the question as to whether or not Josh would be so anti-shootout if the Flyers were more successful in that format. I admit that when Flyers' games go to overtime I want to see them taking chances whenever possible because I know what is coming in the shootout.

It seems, though, that a three-on-three, five minute OT is just a shootout in "real hockey" clothing. If it were up to me, I would extend the four-on-four OT to a full 20-minute, golden goal period with a tie declared at the end if no goal. Admittedly, most of my distain for the shootout is due to the Flyers' ineptitude in that format.

Nice research, Josh.

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Josh Kaz

4:07 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Thanks Matt, yes these 3 point games are killers, especially when you're trying to catch teams ahead of you. But I'm still not a fan of ties. I commend the league for trying to change that, but they have to realize that you're right, it's just a glorified skills competition, and it's not what the game is about.

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Josh Kaz

4:27 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Thanks alot Joe! I would agree with you that I have a little bias, being a diehard Flyers fan, that being said, I am also a huge NHL fan as well. And as much as I enjoy watching skilled forwards displaying their talent in the shootout, it's not in the spirit of the game. You will never see a player use a 'spin-o-rama' or turn backwards or anything like that during a real game.
I have to disagree with you about the 3 on 3. 3 on 3 can and does happen occasionally during a real game. It is extremely wide open hockey, and players out there have to play a zone like defense because man on man would virtually be impossible. Coaching would be huge in this scenario as well: would you put out 2 defenseman and 1 forward or 2 forward and 1 D? Or would you attempt 3 forwards and play to win? I think it would be very interesting.

Phil

3:39 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

The issue is everyone forgets what happened prior to the '04 lockout. When games went into overtime, both teams went into a shell because neither wanted to lose the point for the loss. Even if you did 4on4 for longer or 3on3 the for a bit, it'd just be passing in the defensive zone. I think the 3 point system is ultimately the way it should go. The use it in pool play in the Olympics and World Championships but I'd make it 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for a OT/SO win, and 1 for an OT/SO loss. Unless you want to just do 2 and 0, a win is a win or a loss is a loss, I think the 3pt game is better.

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Josh Kaz

4:41 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

The only problem with the 3 point system, which was pointed out by the GM's, was that with so many more points being given out, the races at the end of the season won't be as tight as they used to be. Even though the NHL may have already messed that up with the realignment. Discussion for another day though lol

Gary Frisch

4:16 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Nice article and analysis, Josh. I agree that hockey's a team sport, and have always been a little annoyed that 65 minutes of team play is tossed out in favor of the one-on-ones of a shootout. I favor a 10-minute overtime period prior to the shootout, or a 3-point scale like you propose.

That said, I admit to being a Devils fan, and until this season they have excelled in the shootout. But I believe that won't always be the case (just as the Flyers won't always be poor in this department), so things should even out over the long haul. I too suspect if the Flyers were among the top shoot out teams, you might not be so staunchly anti-shootout. But good article. We'll see what the NHL has to say about it.

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Josh Kaz

4:39 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Thank you very much Gary. You've got it nice over there, Devils have been awesome in shootouts, at least prior to this year. There is a difference between being good, bad and just terrible. And the Flyers are just terrible in the shootout. The best teams are around 60% in shootouts, while most of the teams come in around 50%. The bad teams are in the low 40%. The Flyers are 35%!

We can tell already that the NHL knows the shootout isn't completely fair because they changed the tie breaker system. It used to be the team with the most 'Wins,' would win the tiebreaker. Now it is most 'Wins in Regulation.' So they know they have to do something, they just don't know what yet. Kind of like the realignment, they knew they had to change it, just didn't know how. And don't get me started on that.

Moni

4:40 pm on Thursday, March 21, 2013

Great article! I feel a lot more knowledgable in this area now. I am on your side with the 4 on 4, 3 on 3, and possible shoot out. Like you said, fans love to watch the shoot out/skills competition, but we don't want to feel like our team is relying on a one man effort to make the playoffs. Seeing 3 on 3 would be exciting... And the random shoot out would be fine as long as it's rare. I'm glad you offered several suggestions though, I just want to see a positive change.

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Mike Shortall

11:10 pm on Saturday, March 23, 2013

I don't think the shootout is going anywhere, although I do like the 4v4 and 3v3 options. I also don't think crappy shootout performances by any team - like our Flyers - is a valid reason to get rid of it. Besides, isn't the penalty shot supposedly one of the most exciting plays in hockey?!? If that's indeed the case, what better play could you end a regular season game on???

For your Flyers hockey-based enjoyment:
http://crankymanslawn.com/2013/03/21/wayne-simmonds-ice-warrior/

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Josh Kaz

4:03 am on Monday, March 25, 2013

I agree Mike, I don't think it's leaving either, but I hope they take measures to make it more of a rarity. As far as the Penalty Shot, you won't get any argument from me against it being one of the most exciting plays. That said, there is a big difference between the two. A penalty shot is earned during the game! A player put himself in the position to get a breakaway and was illegally stopped; therefore deserves the chance all alone on the penalty shot. The shootout is just saying, we give up, we couldn't find a winner, so we'll leave it up to these 3 guys.
And nice article on Simmonds! I agree, he fits the Flyers mold perfectly and I like how you pointed out the he doesn't hesitate to stand up for his teammates! That's so important now days.

Melissa Treacy

11:56 am on Friday, March 29, 2013

Comments have been removed for violating the terms of service.

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Hugh G'azhole

12:02 pm on Friday, March 29, 2013

At least I can tell you think my comments are funny because you have a beautiful smile in your picture Melissa.

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